Thursday, April 30, 2009

Word Origin of "Forecasting"

I am in the middle of reading Storm Watchers by John D. Cox. It is a pretty cool account of the history of the pioneers of weather forecasting. Each chapter is about a particular person and tells an interesting account of their personal and scientific struggle.

Robert FitzRoy, who was appointed to lead the newly formed British Meteorological Department of the Board of Trade, was truly a visionary. It was the 1860's, in a time when so called astro-meteorologists predicted weather based on the stars, planets, sun and moon, FitzRoy believed that weather could be predicted if one used a wide dispersed and telegraph connected network of weather observers and mapped the progress of pressure, temperature, etc. He went fast ahead at making it happen against extensive resistance from most including the Royal Society who thought it was ridiculous for a scientific person to try to predict the future.

FitsRoy wanted to separate his work from that of the astrologers, he avoided the term predictions for that reason and brought the word forecasting to the language. He wrote:

"Prophecies or predictions they are not; the term forecast is strictly applicable to such an opinion as is the result of a scientific combination and calculation..."

Amen!

Sadly, he was so ridiculed and criticized about his forwardness by the Royal Society, that on this day, April 30, in 1865 he slit his throat and killed himself. Unfortunately it took many years for the science of weather forecasting to catch up to his vision. Sorry, didn't mean to end on that note. It is easy to forget sometimes what our predecessors had to go through to get us to this point. As you can tell, I am really moved by this book!



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